🔍 Read the full analysis: A World Of Farmers, A World Of AI on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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TL;DR
A November 3 report from ThorstenMeyerAI.com uses farming to examine how technology can reduce the share of workers needed in a sector. It says the shift took roughly two centuries in the United States, while 928 million people worldwide still work in agriculture, according to an ILO estimate for 2025.
Thorsten Meyer’s November 3 report, “A World of Farmers, a World of AI,” traces how agriculture went from employing most workers in many societies to a small share of the workforce in countries such as the United States, while food output grew. The report uses that history to frame a question about automation’s potential effect on work, but its prediction that automation could eventually account for up to 90% of a sector is Meyer’s thesis, not an established forecast.
Meyer cites a U.S. Census Bureau-published historical series estimating that 73.7% of the U.S. labor force worked in agriculture in 1800. The underlying figures, compiled by economic historian Stanley Lebergott, count 1.4 million agricultural workers among a labor force of 1.9 million people aged 10 and older. The estimates before 1840 are not census counts, and the series includes about 530,000 enslaved people. Meyer says “about three in four” is the more careful summary.
The report describes agricultural change as a sequence rather than a single breakthrough: improved tools, chemical fertilizer and crop breeding. It points to a steel plough made by John Deere in 1837, the Haber ammonia patent filed in 1908, and short-straw wheat varieties introduced in India and Pakistan in the mid-1960s. Citing Indian government figures, Meyer says the wheat harvest increased from 12.3 million tonnes in 1964-65 to 26.4 million tonnes in 1971-72.
The workforce shift did not mean fewer agricultural workers immediately. Meyer says the number of U.S. farm workers continued to rise until about 1910, reaching an estimated 11.8 million. Globally, the report cites an International Labour Organization estimate that 928 million people worked in agriculture in 2025, or about one in four workers worldwide. The report gives current country shares as about 43% in India, 1.5% in the United States and 1% in Germany.
Lessons From Farming’s Workforce Shift
The report’s central relevance is its example of a sector producing more with a much smaller share of workers. Meyer says that since 1961 the world’s cereal harvest increased 4.2-fold, while the population increased 2.7-fold. He also cites U.S. Department of Agriculture data showing farm output in 2023 was nearly three times its 1948 level, with only a small rise in total inputs. Those comparisons support the point that employment share and output can move in opposite directions, though they do not by themselves establish what will happen in other sectors.
For readers weighing AI’s effects on work, agriculture offers a long historical case, not a direct timetable. Meyer emphasizes that the U.S. shift unfolded over roughly 200 years, across multiple technologies and changing economic conditions. The report therefore warns against treating automation as an overnight event or assuming that a falling workforce share means a sector’s output has fallen.
The implications also differ by place. A technology that reduces labor demand may affect workers and communities differently depending on access to machinery, land, financing and alternative jobs. The report’s global estimate—928 million agricultural workers—shows that farming remains a major source of livelihoods even as its share has declined sharply in some richer economies.
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From Hand Tools to Higher Yields
Meyer’s historical comparisons show that the agricultural workforce was large in several countries at different points in their records. Japan’s primary sector accounted for an estimated about 85% of gainfully occupied people in 1872, according to a reconstruction by economic historians. China’s national statistical series put the primary-sector share at 83.5% in 1952, while India’s 1951 census counted cultivators and agricultural laborers as 69.7% of workers. These measures are not perfectly equivalent: some include forestry and fishing, and some are historical reconstructions rather than census results.
The report links the shift to improvements that raised the amount of food produced per worker. Deere’s steel plough addressed soil that stuck to earlier ploughs, while mechanized reapers, threshers and tractors later reduced some manual tasks. The Haber process enabled industrial ammonia production; fertilizer supplied nitrogen that crops need. Plant breeding added another productivity gain. The report cites India’s wheat harvest at 117.5 million tonnes in 2024-25, based on a third advance estimate, compared with 12.3 million tonnes in 1964-65.
The U.S. trend also took place over generations. In Germany, figures cited by Meyer show agriculture and forestry’s share falling from 43% in 1882 to 25% in 1939, even as the number of farm workers remained between eight and 10 million. The report notes that the 1882 census may have undercounted women working on family farms. Such qualifications matter when comparing historical labor statistics across countries and periods.
“The number to remember: 928 million.”
— Thorsten Meyer, author of the report
Limits of the Automation Forecast
The report does not establish that AI will reduce employment in another sector at the same pace or scale as agricultural technology did. Meyer’s suggestion that automation could reach up to 90% of a sector is presented as a personal thesis; the report does not supply a defined measure for that percentage, a specific sector, or a method for testing the projection. It also does not identify which jobs would disappear, change or be created.
Several historical figures carry limits. The U.S. estimate for 1800 is a reconstruction, not a direct census count, and includes enslaved workers. The cross-country figures refer to different years and, in some cases, different definitions of agriculture or the primary sector. The ILO’s 928 million figure is an estimate for 2025, not a count of all agricultural tasks or a forecast of future employment.
Even the output comparisons do not isolate technology as the only cause. The report presents long-run production and population figures, but does not quantify the separate effects of crop varieties, fertilizer, irrigation, machinery, land use or policy. It remains unclear how closely the agricultural experience maps onto work affected by AI today.
The Series Turns to Industry
Meyer presents the article as Episode 2 of “Work After Work,” a series about how the economy is built. He says the next episode will examine the factory and the role of mechanical reapers, threshers and tractors in agriculture’s transformation. That installment could add detail to the report’s account of how tools changed farm labor.
For the broader AI argument, the next useful milestones are evidence about adoption and effects in specific industries: which tasks are automated, how employment and output change, and over what period. The report supplies a historical comparison, but not a forecast that answers those questions. Its central claim is narrower: farming shows that a sector can produce far more food with a much smaller workforce share, through a long sequence of changes.
Key Questions
What is the news in “A World of Farmers, a World of AI”?
Thorsten Meyer published a report on November 3, 2026, tracing agriculture’s long decline as a share of employment and using it to discuss automation’s possible effects on work. The report is part of his “Work After Work” series.
How many people worked in U.S. agriculture around 1800?
The report cites a historical estimate that 1.4 million of 1.9 million workers aged 10 and older worked in agriculture in 1800, or 73.7%. The pre-1840 figures are estimates, not census counts, and include enslaved people.
How many people worldwide still work in agriculture?
Meyer cites an International Labour Organization estimate of 928 million agricultural workers in 2025, about one in four workers worldwide.
Does the report say AI will eliminate 90% of jobs?
No. Meyer describes automation reaching up to 90% of a sector as his thesis, not a fact or confirmed forecast. The report does not specify a sector, measurement method or firm timeline for that projection.
Did agricultural employment fall as soon as farming technology improved?
Not in every measure. Meyer says the number of U.S. farm workers kept rising until about 1910, even as agriculture’s share of the workforce declined over time. The distinction is between the number of workers and their share of the total labor force.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
