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Noah Smith, Brad DeLong and Dan Wang discussed the possible Anthropic IPO in the first revived Hexapodia conversation, published as a Substack Live recording and podcast. Smith argued that frontier AI firms could become deeply tied to businesses across industries; DeLong and Wang were described as more skeptical. The source does not report an IPO filing, date or valuation.
Noah Smith, Brad DeLong and Dan Wang discussed the prospect of an Anthropic IPO in the first installment of Smith’s revived Hexapodia series, a Substack Live conversation that is also being recorded as a podcast. Smith presented a bullish case for Anthropic’s potential economic position, while the report describes DeLong and Wang as more skeptical; it does not say that Anthropic has filed to go public or set an offering date.
Smith said the discussion was inspired by a post he had published the previous week about Anthropic’s possible IPO. He characterized his position as a bull case, but said it did not depend on Anthropic taking over every industry or AI replacing workers. Instead, he outlined a future in which companies seeking to compete would form close ties with frontier AI developers and gain access to proprietary models that could remain ahead of versions derived from them.
In Smith’s scenario, those ties could go beyond buying AI services from a vendor. Businesses might link their capital structures to a frontier lab and become, in some sense, subsidiaries within a larger AI-centered group. He described Anthropic as potentially one of a small number of competing conglomerates, alongside OpenAI and Google, with affiliated businesses operating across industries. This is Smith’s forecast, not a confirmed description of Anthropic’s current strategy or corporate structure.
The post says DeLong and Wang were more skeptical, but does not provide a detailed account of their arguments or quote their responses. Smith also noted a recent paper by Google DeepMind economists Imas, Koh and Legg, which models how improved AI coordination could lead to larger, more concentrated, AI-heavy firms. He said the paper captured some of the dynamics he had in mind, while describing his own scenario as involving humans and AI as complements, including cases where AI uses private human-held data.
The stakes in Smith’s IPO case
The discussion matters because it connects the question of an Anthropic public offering to a wider question about how AI companies might organize economic activity. Smith’s argument is not simply that demand for AI software could raise a lab’s value. It is that access to advanced models could become important enough for businesses to build deeper corporate relationships with a small number of AI developers.
If that scenario came to pass, it could affect how companies obtain technology, how much independence they retain, and how economic power is distributed among AI providers and their business partners. The conversation does not establish that this market structure will emerge, and the paper Smith cites is a model rather than evidence that the proposed shift has already happened. The disagreement is therefore about a possible future, not a reported change to Anthropic’s ownership or operations.
For readers following a potential IPO, the distinction is material: Smith’s bullish view depends on a particular theory of how frontier AI could reshape firms and markets. The source provides no IPO price, valuation, expected date or formal offering details against which investors could assess that thesis. This article is not financial advice; Smith’s comments are his own view, not a guarantee of future performance.
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Hexapodia returns on Substack Live
Smith presented the conversation as the return of Hexapodia, a podcast he hosts with economist Brad DeLong. He said longtime listeners had asked for the show to resume. Under the new format, Hexapodia conversations will be held as Substack Live events, then recorded as podcasts and sent out by email.
Smith said the first episode had a delayed start because he got the time wrong and arrived about 20 minutes late. He noted that DeLong and Wang spoke before he joined. The source does not provide a full transcript, so the account of the participants’ positions is limited to Smith’s description and the excerpts he chose to publish.
Smith also disclosed that he held no current position in Anthropic and said he would probably buy its stock if it goes public, unless something major changes. He said he owns stock in TypeSafe, an Anthropic competitor. Those disclosures provide relevant context for his stated outlook; they do not establish that he has bought Anthropic shares or will do so.
“As AI coordination improves, however, this can break the Coasean ceiling on firm size and the market structure undergoes a phase transition toward large, concentrated AI-heavy firms.”
— Imas, Koh and Legg, as quoted in Smith’s post
No IPO timetable or terms given
The source contains no announcement that Anthropic has filed for an IPO, hired banks, set a timetable or disclosed offering terms. It also provides no valuation, financial results or information about the company’s plans for public-market access. The discussion is about a prospective IPO, not confirmation that one is imminent.
It is also unclear from the report exactly why DeLong and Wang were skeptical: Smith summarizes their positions but does not reproduce their reasoning. No full transcript or detailed account of their exchange is included in the material provided. The economic scenario Smith describes remains a forecast, and the cited paper’s model does not establish that frontier AI firms will become conglomerates or subsidiaries’ parent companies across industries.
The series and IPO questions continue
Smith said Hexapodia will continue as a series of Substack Live conversations, with recordings distributed as podcasts and by email. The source does not give a date for the next episode or identify its topic.
On Anthropic, the next concrete milestone would be a company announcement or regulatory filing if it decides to pursue an offering. Until then, questions about timing, valuation, structure and investor access remain unanswered by this report. The debate captured in the episode is best read as a discussion of possible long-term market effects, not news that an IPO has been scheduled.
Key Questions
Did Anthropic announce an IPO?
No. The report describes a discussion about a possible Anthropic IPO; it does not report a filing, offering date or company announcement.
What was Noah Smith’s bull case?
Smith argued that companies could need close relationships with frontier AI providers to compete, potentially linking their business structures to those providers rather than buying AI services only at arm’s length. He presented this as a scenario, not an established market trend.
What did Brad DeLong and Dan Wang say?
Smith described both as more skeptical than he was. The supplied report does not provide their detailed arguments or direct quotes from them.
What is the cited AI-economics paper about?
Smith cited a paper by Imas, Koh and Legg that models how advances in AI coordination could lead to larger, more concentrated, AI-heavy firms. The paper’s model is not proof that this outcome will occur.
Did Smith disclose any financial interests?
Yes. He said he had no current position in Anthropic but would probably buy its stock if it goes public, unless something major changes. He also disclosed owning stock in TypeSafe, which he identified as an Anthropic competitor.
Source: noahpinion.blog
