TL;DR
Get business pricing on office and shipping supplies
- Business-only prices and quantity discounts
- Tax-exempt purchasing
- Multiple users, one account, clear invoices
UPS Capital has launched CommerceShield, a platform that uses large language models and UPS delivery data to predict whether shipments will succeed, then lets retailers pair risk scores with actions. The company says the tool can help merchants respond to delivery problems, though its accuracy and real-world results have not been detailed in the report.
UPS Capital has launched CommerceShield, a platform that uses AI and UPS shipping data to estimate whether a delivery will succeed and help retailers choose actions for risky orders. The launch targets a costly holiday-season problem: shoppers often hold retailers responsible when packages are late, missing or marked delivered but cannot be found.
According to a report by PYMNTS, CommerceShield runs large language models against two years of UPS shipping data. That dataset covers more than 26 billion delivery touchpoints across more than 150 million U.S. addresses. UPS Capital, the financial services arm of UPS, uses the delivery information to generate a prediction score for a shipment.
The platform combines that score with other signals, including the device or VPN used by a shopper and the email associated with an order. UPS Capital product vice president Ashley Hillman calls the combined result a “multi-signal super score.” Retailers can examine component scores, including delivery and digital identity risk, and connect them to actions such as requiring a signature, directing a package to a staffed pickup point or applying chargeback protection to a suspicious transaction.
Hillman described the service as both a way to predict potential loss and a system for linking a score to a response. The report does not provide independent performance results, specific accuracy rates or details about how retailers have used the tool since its launch.
Retailers Face the Cost of Delivery Failures
Delivery problems can affect more than the cost of replacing a purchase. In UPS Capital survey data cited by PYMNTS, more than a third of consumers identified a package marked delivered but not found as their most stressful holiday shipping experience. The survey also found that 60% said a bad shipping experience would keep them from shopping with that retailer again, while 25% said they would tell someone else about it.
The figures point to a reputational risk for merchants, even when a carrier handles the physical delivery. Hillman said retailers may view shipping after dispatch as the carrier’s responsibility, but consumers tend to blame the brand they bought from. A score that helps identify possible delivery problems could give a retailer an opportunity to change the delivery plan or prepare a faster response. Whether CommerceShield does so effectively in practice has not yet been established by figures in the report.
The tool also reflects a shift toward making risk decisions during order processing rather than handling every exception manually after a complaint. That could matter during holiday volume peaks, when staff may have less time to review each order. It also raises practical questions about how retailers weigh the score, what actions they select and how they communicate changes to customers.
signature required delivery service
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Holiday Shipping and Customer Expectations
The announcement comes as retailers manage a season when delivery timing can carry extra significance: a delayed or missing gift may be difficult to replace before a holiday or event. Hillman recounted that pajamas she ordered for her children’s Santa photos did not arrive. She said the retailer had refunded the order weeks earlier without notifying her, leaving her to seek a replacement close to the photo date.
In the survey results reported by PYMNTS, 61% of respondents said they would trust a retailer more if it replaced a missing package in time. Consumers did not converge on a single preferred remedy: responses were divided among overnighting a replacement, sending one to a different location, arranging pickup elsewhere or issuing an immediate refund.
UPS Capital’s survey also examined shipping protection offered at checkout. Only 10% of surveyed consumers called it a hidden fee, while more than half said offering protection signaled that a retailer took responsibility for what happened after purchase. More than half said they would be more likely to shop with a retailer offering it, and two-thirds described it as extremely or very important. These are survey responses, not evidence that every customer or retailer will respond the same way.
““That’s the most stressful experience a consumer can have.””
— Ashley Hillman, vice president of product at UPS Capital, as quoted by PYMNTS
Accuracy and Retailer Results Remain Unreported
The report does not state how accurately CommerceShield predicts failed deliveries, how often its scores lead to a change in shipping plans, or whether the platform has reduced losses or complaints for retailers. It also does not identify participating merchants, provide pricing information or explain how the model handles errors and changes in delivery conditions.
The survey figures are attributed to UPS Capital, but the report does not give the survey’s sample size, field dates or methodology. The number of delivery touchpoints and addresses describes the data used to build the delivery score; it does not, by itself, show the tool’s predictive accuracy or establish a comparison with other systems.
It remains unclear how retailers will balance fraud and delivery-risk controls against convenience. A signature requirement or pickup-point rerouting may reduce some risks but can also make delivery less convenient. The report does not describe how customers are notified when a retailer changes a delivery option based on a score.
Retailers Will Test Real-Time Responses
UPS Capital’s stated aim is for retailers to use automated tools to assess risky orders and select responses in real time, rather than reviewing each case by hand as holiday order volume rises. Hillman said she hopes merchants will use such tools to build customer trust, but the report does not give a timetable for wider adoption or name retailers planning to use CommerceShield.
The next meaningful evidence will be operational: whether retailers deploy the scores, which actions they attach to them, and how those decisions affect delivery outcomes and customer service. For now, CommerceShield’s launch and its described data inputs are confirmed in the report; claims about preventing losses or improving the holiday experience remain unverified there.
Key Questions
What is UPS Capital’s CommerceShield?
CommerceShield is a UPS Capital platform that uses AI and UPS shipping data to estimate delivery risk and let retailers connect scores to actions such as signature requirements or staffed pickup locations.
What data does the delivery score use?
PYMNTS reports that the system analyzes two years of UPS shipping data, covering more than 26 billion delivery touchpoints across over 150 million U.S. addresses. The platform also factors in signals such as a shopper’s device or VPN and order email.
Does CommerceShield guarantee a package will arrive?
No guarantee is described. The platform is presented as a way to predict delivery risk and help retailers choose a response. The report provides no accuracy rate or evidence that it can prevent every delivery failure.
Why is delivery risk a concern for retailers?
UPS Capital survey data cited by PYMNTS found that many consumers would reconsider shopping with a retailer after a bad shipping experience. Customers may blame the merchant even when a carrier handles the delivery, making service failures a potential source of lost trust and repeat business.
What remains unknown about the launch?
The report does not identify retailers using CommerceShield or provide its pricing, measured accuracy, adoption figures or results for reducing losses. It also does not specify how the platform handles incorrect risk flags or explains delivery changes to customers.
Source: rss
Fall Picks
fall essentials
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
