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OpenAI and Anthropic are both preparing initial public offerings (IPOs) that could become among the largest in history, with valuations exceeding $900 billion. These companies are emphasizing enterprise revenue as the core justification for their high valuations, despite ongoing losses and uncertain margins. This marks a shift in how AI labs are positioning themselves for public markets, prioritizing the durability of enterprise lock over consumer growth.

OpenAI is targeting a valuation of up to $1 trillion, with an S-1 filing expected in late 2026. It currently generates approximately $2 billion monthly, with over 40% of revenue from enterprise clients, and is on track to reach parity with consumer revenue by the end of 2026. However, it is projected to lose around $14 billion in 2026, with gross margins near 33%, and profitability not expected before 2030.

Anthropic is also preparing for a public listing, with a valuation above $900 billion. Its annualized revenue reached $30 billion by April 2026, with 80% coming from enterprise customers. It reports a gross margin of around 40%, with internal forecasts aiming for 77% by 2028. Both companies hold significant compute commitments, measured in hundreds of billions of dollars, which underpin their high valuations.

The core argument for these valuations is enterprise lock—a contracted, expanding, and embedded revenue base—that is seen as more sustainable and capable of supporting high multiples than consumer usage models, which have thin margins and higher retention uncertainties. Critics, including Goldman Sachs’ Greg Jensen, have questioned whether these multiples are justified, suggesting they are priced for a monopoly outcome that does not yet exist.

Why Enterprise Revenue Is the Key to Valuation

The high valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic hinge on their ability to demonstrate durable, expanding enterprise revenue streams. This shift reflects a broader industry move to justify mega-cap multiples through enterprise lock, which offers contracted, embedded, and expanding revenue. If proven, this model could redefine how AI companies are valued in public markets, emphasizing the importance of enterprise relationships over consumer metrics.

However, the sustainability of these margins and the actual profitability of the enterprise lock remain uncertain. The upcoming IPO filings will serve as a test for whether enterprise revenue can truly support the lofty valuations and whether the disruption promised by these AI labs will materialize into long-term financial stability.

The Evolution of AI Lab Valuations and Market Positioning

Over the past three years, OpenAI and Anthropic have transitioned from private research labs to high-stakes market contenders. Their recent disclosures reveal rapid revenue growth—OpenAI approaching $25 billion annualized, Anthropic at $30 billion—driven largely by enterprise clients. Despite these numbers, both companies are losing billions annually, with OpenAI’s gross margin near 33% and Anthropic’s around 40%. The push toward IPOs reflects a strategic shift to validate their enterprise-centric valuation models in public markets.

This development is part of a broader trend where AI firms leverage enterprise lock to justify high multiples, moving away from consumer-focused growth. The upcoming IPOs will be among the first tests of whether this model can sustain investor confidence amid profitability uncertainties and high compute costs.

“The enterprise lock is being asked to carry valuations that consumer models cannot support, transforming the IPO into a test of this core thesis.”

— Thorsten Meyer

Uncertainties Surrounding Margins and Profitability

It remains unclear whether the margins necessary to sustain these high valuations will materialize at scale. Both companies are still unprofitable, with significant cash burn, and their internal forecasts for margin improvements are aggressive. The upcoming IPO filings and audited financials will be critical in testing whether enterprise lock can truly support the valuations or if the high multiples are speculative.

Next Steps: IPO Filings and Market Testing

Both OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to file their S-1 documents in the late third or early fourth quarter of 2026. The market will scrutinize their audited financials, margins, and revenue durability. The success of these IPOs could set a precedent for how AI companies are valued based on enterprise relationships, while any shortcomings could lead to a reevaluation of the current high-multiple paradigm.

Key Questions

Why are enterprise revenues so important for AI company valuations?

Enterprise revenues are contracted, often expanding, and embedded in customer workflows, making them more predictable and durable than consumer usage metrics. This stability justifies higher valuation multiples, especially when companies are unprofitable but have significant growth potential in enterprise markets.

What risks do high valuation multiples based on enterprise lock face?

The main risks include margins not materializing as expected, enterprise contracts not being renewed, or the disruption not translating into sustained revenue growth. If margins remain thin or revenue growth stalls, the high multiples may become unsustainable.

How will the upcoming IPO filings test the enterprise valuation thesis?

The filings will provide audited financial data, including margins, revenue stability, and cash flow. Investors will assess whether the high multiples are justified by actual, proven enterprise revenue streams or if they are overly optimistic expectations.

Could consumer revenue still play a role in valuation?

While consumer revenue is large, its thin margins and higher retention uncertainty make it less suitable as the primary basis for mega-cap valuations. The current strategy emphasizes enterprise lock as the main valuation anchor.

Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com