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TL;DR
Intel shares fell about 29% on Oct. 30 after the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue and margins below analyst expectations, despite reporting strong third-quarter growth. The selloff cut the market value of the U.S. government’s Intel stake by about $12 billion in one day, though the holding remained worth far more than the government paid.
Intel shares fell about 29% on Friday, Oct. 30, after the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue and profit margins below Wall Street expectations, wiping roughly $12 billion from the market value of the U.S. government’s stake in the chipmaker in a single session. The drop followed a quarter of strong data-center growth, but Intel’s outlook pointed to weaker PC demand, high memory costs and limits on how quickly it can meet demand for server chips.
Intel closed at $65.76, down from $92.07 on Thursday, Oct. 29. Yahoo Finance calculated that the decline erased nearly $140 billion in Intel market value. Based on closing prices dating to May 1973, Yahoo Finance found only one worse day for the stock: July 5, 1974, when it fell nearly 30%. The comparison depends on that historical price series; CNBC also described Friday’s decline as Intel’s worst since the 1970s.
The company’s third-quarter revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, above its own guidance, and adjusted earnings were 52 cents per share, compared with guidance of 38 cents. Data Center and AI revenue climbed 78% to $7.3 billion. But Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, below the $17.1 billion analysts expected, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. It projected adjusted gross margin of 38%, down from 44.1% in the third quarter, and adjusted earnings of 25 cents per share, against an analyst estimate of 43 cents.
The U.S. government owns 433.3 million Intel shares, acquired in August 2025 at $20.47 each for about $8.9 billion. Yahoo Finance’s calculations put their value at about $39.9 billion at Thursday’s close and $28.5 billion after Friday’s drop. That represents a one-day decline of roughly $12 billion in paper value, while the holding remained worth substantially more than its purchase price. The source material says the purchase was funded with chip grants Intel had been promised.
Infographic 01 · One day, one stake
One trading day cost Washington more than it paid
Intel's stock fell about 29% on Friday after a weak forecast. Here is what that did to the shares the US government bought in August 2025, and how the price compares with what other buyers paid.
The government’s stake, on paper
433.3 million shares × price
- PaidAug 2025, at $20.47 a share$8.9B
- Thursday's close29 Oct 2026, $92.07$39.9B
- Friday's close30 Oct 2026, $65.76$28.5B
The one-day loss (about $11.4B) was larger than the $8.9B the government paid. The stake is still worth roughly three times its cost.
What different buyers paid per share
Red line: Friday’s close, $65.76
- US governmentAug 2025 · 433.3M shares$20.47
- SoftBankSep 2025 · 87M shares$23.00
- Nvidiaagreed Sep 2025 · 215M shares$23.28
- Public offeringAug 2026 · about 242M shares$95.00
2025 buyers are far above water; buyers of the August 2026 offering are about 31% below their price (my arithmetic).
Market prices as reported by Yahoo Finance and CNBC for 29–30 October 2026; no licensed price feed. Stake values: Yahoo Finance’s arithmetic with 433.3 million shares. Purchase prices from Intel’s 10-Q and the August 2025 agreement.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, 30 Oct · Yahoo Finance (stake), 30 Oct · CNBC, 30 Oct · Intel 10-Q, 30 Oct · Intel 8-K, 22 Aug 2025.
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Washington’s Stake Moves With Intel
The selloff highlights how the government’s investment in Intel is exposed to the same market swings as other shareholders. The estimated $12 billion one-day loss is a change in paper value, not evidence that the government sold shares or booked a realized loss. At Friday’s closing price, the stake was still valued at about $28.5 billion, compared with the $8.9 billion paid.
For Intel, the outlook matters beyond its stock price. The company is a major U.S. chipmaker, and its ability to expand production and supply processors is relevant to domestic semiconductor capacity. But the quarter’s results show a split: demand for data-center chips is rising sharply, while the PC business faces pressure from higher system prices and lower expected sales. That combination makes execution—producing enough server chips while managing costs and PC demand—central to the company’s near-term prospects.
The government’s position also draws attention to the financial consequences of public support for a private company. The reported share-value changes do not by themselves show whether the arrangement has met its policy aims or what return taxpayers will ultimately receive. Those questions require more than a daily market valuation.
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Strong Quarter, Weaker Forecast
Intel reported its results after the market closed on Thursday, Oct. 29. The earnings release showed revenue of $16.5 billion, up from $13.7 billion a year earlier. Adjusted gross margin was 44.1%, about two percentage points above the company’s own guidance. The Data Center and AI segment recorded $7.3 billion in revenue and $3 billion in operating profit. Intel described the segment’s 78% year-over-year revenue growth as its strongest in 15 years.
The next-quarter forecast shifted investor attention from those past results to what Intel expects between October and December. The company said PC chip revenue fell 5% in the third quarter and expects it to decline by more than 20% from the third quarter to the fourth. Intel attributed the pressure in part to higher prices for PC systems as demand for memory from AI data centers strains supply. It also cited a fatal accident at its factory in Israel, which the source material says is expected to reduce quarterly revenue by about $300 million.
Intel shares had risen sharply earlier in 2026, nearly quadrupling from the start of the year to a record on June 22, according to Yahoo Finance’s calculation. Even after Friday’s fall, the stock was reported to be up nearly 80% for the year, while down by more than half from that June peak. Other chip stocks also fell Friday: CNBC reported declines in Nvidia, Broadcom and Qualcomm, alongside a 2.9% drop in the Nasdaq Composite.
““Not fixed yet.””
— D.A. Davidson, as reported by CNBC
Production and Demand Remain Key Unknowns
Intel’s forecast identifies near-term pressure but does not settle how long the memory squeeze will last or how quickly PC demand may recover. The company also faces a capacity question: it has strong demand for data-center processors but may not be able to supply enough. The source material does not specify when supply constraints could ease or how much additional output Intel can deliver.
It is also unclear whether outside customers will commit to using Intel’s manufacturing services at the scale needed to support its factory plans. Intel’s finance chief warned that positive free cash flow next year is unlikely, according to the source material, but no detailed figures or updated timeline were provided there. The value of the government’s stake will continue to move with Intel’s share price; Friday’s paper-value decline does not indicate a sale or a final taxpayer return.
Watch Intel’s 2027 Execution
Investors will be watching Intel’s next earnings updates for evidence that it can raise server-chip output, stabilize PC-related revenue and manage the margin decline projected for the fourth quarter. The company’s stated expectation that PC chip revenue will fall by more than 20% quarter over quarter provides a near-term measure of the demand and pricing pressure it faces.
Another marker is whether Intel secures more outside customers for its manufacturing business. The source material identifies customer commitments, memory availability and server-chip production as key issues over the coming year, but gives no dates for new agreements or capacity milestones. Intel’s outlook for cash generation will also be monitored after its finance chief said positive free cash flow next year is unlikely. No subsequent government action on its shareholding was reported in the material.
Key Questions
Why did Intel shares fall so sharply?
Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, below the $17.1 billion analysts expected, and projected lower gross margins and adjusted earnings. Investors focused on that outlook despite the company’s strong third-quarter results.
How much did the U.S. government’s Intel stake lose in value?
Yahoo Finance’s calculations put the stake’s value at about $39.9 billion on Thursday and about $28.5 billion on Friday, a paper-value decline of roughly $12 billion in one day. The holding was still worth more than the $8.9 billion the government paid.
Did the government sell its Intel shares?
The source material does not report a sale. The estimated decline refers to the market value of the government’s 433.3 million shares, not a realized loss from selling them.
Was Intel’s third-quarter performance weak?
No. Revenue increased 21% to $16.5 billion, and Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion. The sharp share decline followed the weaker fourth-quarter forecast, not a reported fall in third-quarter revenue.
What will determine Intel’s outlook?
Key factors include whether Intel can make enough server chips, how long high memory costs weigh on PC demand, and whether outside customers sign up for its manufacturing services. Intel also faces pressure on margins and cash flow.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
